Newsletter sign-up: 
Get Dallas Cowboys news on your cellDefensive Power Rankings
12:52 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007 | Permalink
E-mail News tips
 |
 |
 
|
|
February 2008
Categories
Movers and Shakers Pre-season Texas Stadium dallasnews.com
Sports Blogs |
« Cowboys-Redskins Flashback: Mad Bomber's moment |
Main
| Are the Redskins still the Cowboys' biggest rivals? »
Alright, so I took what I did with the offense, and reversed it to rank the defenses. There's an explanation with the other rankings. And yes, I'll go over the formula at some point in the next few days. Again, the threshold for this formula is 40. A 40-point effort means a win for the offense. Not sure if it works the same way for the defense, but I figured I'd plug the numbers in anyway. Follow the jump for the defensive rankings: NFL RANKINGS COWBOYS GAME-BY-GAME |
|
|
|
|
|
Comments
Posted by tricky @ 1:21 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007
what are you doing up so late? i think the lateness of the hour has had an effect on your sanity. seahawks at #3? bucs at #6?
Posted by Saint Jimmy @ 2:12 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007
Tricky, in the Seahawks defense they're only 1 of 3 teams that have given a shut out this year. So I'm sure that had something to do with it.
I'm very curious to see what kind of criteria this formula uses. Because there are several surprises that I don't understand at all. Like Miami having a middle of the pack ranking on offense. And what's the deal with the Chicago and Buffalo games for the Cowboys defense? The Cowboys defense gave up 239 yards and 10 points to the Bears and get a 14 ranking but they allow 229 yards to the Bills and only 3 points and they get a 35?
Posted by Keith @ 6:31 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007
These stats are completely meaningless unless you took out/accounted for the other team's defensive/special teams scores. That's not an accurate depiction of how your defense is playing. Like SJ stated, the Bills game is a perfect example.
Posted by patsfaninpittsburgh @ 7:37 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007
uhhhh Saint Jimmy
This is a defense stat. A 35 is below 40 so it's like GOOD. What he's telling you is the defense played well. This applies to the Chicago game.
Notice the 73 for the Pats game. That's bad. It's also the one game this season where the Cowboys were blown out and humiliated.
The Seahawks have played SF twice and the Rams once. No suprise there.
Posted by Tim Schultz @ 8:47 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007
Respectfully, Albert, this formula is so-so. It doesn't factor in strength of competition, special teams and scores by the other defense, nor meaningless scores in blowout games. The formula that best contextualizes all of those factors in defensive performance is created by the authors of Football Prospectus, at their website footballoutsiders.com. The Cowboys actually rank as the best defense in the NFC right now, though by a very thin margin, and behind about 6 AFC defenses.
But 17th? No.
Posted by Bill In DC @ 9:16 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007
I think 17th is about right overall for the season. I expect that that ranking will improve as the season progresses because the defense is starting to click, whereas early in the season we had injury related issues, unfamiliarity with the defensive scheme, etc. I look for some pretty solid performances going forward.
Posted by Brandon B @ 9:18 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007
Saint Jimmy hit the nail on the head. Unless you can take out scores by the other teams defense and special teams, the stat is meaningless.
Posted by Michael @ 9:20 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007
I actually sent Albert an email yesterday asking him to post his 'Breer' Power Rankings. He may have been independently contemplating doing so, but the results are the same nonetheless.
The real problem with doing Offensive/Defensive power rankings is that a team's win is the combined effort of offense, defense, and special teams. A team's defense can look much stronger than it actually is if their offense is potent (e.g., see New England and Indianapolis).
I also actually sent him my own power rankings. Mine take into account yards gained, yards allowed, points forced, points against, avg. starting field position (which is mostly an indicator of special teams prowess, but will concede that turnovers contribute to success here as well), W/L differential, and strength of schedule.
The statistics behind it are pretty basic: For each statistic cited, a team's score is just the difference between a team's performance in the statistic and the average of the league's performance in the statistic, divided by the standard deviation of the league's performance.
Here's what we get:
Rank TEAM Total Score
1 New England 15.433
2 Indianapolis 12.509
3 Dallas 10.415
4 Green Bay 8.387
5 Pittsburgh 8.011
6 Tennessee 3.802
7 NY Giants 3.724
8 Jacksonville 3.390
9 Tampa Bay 2.724
10 Denver 2.514
11 Philadelphia 2.264
12 San Diego 1.811
13 Washington 1.391
14 Detroit 0.391
15 Minnesota -0.123
16 Chicago -0.185
17 Cleveland -0.731
18 Arizona -1.261
19 New Orleans -1.436
20 Cincinnati -1.776
21 Houston -1.884
22 Kansas City -3.639
23 Seattle -3.778
24 Buffalo -3.846
25 Carolina -4.112
26 Atlanta -5.501
27 Baltimore -5.761
28 Oakland -7.596
29 Miami -7.684
30 St. Louis -8.562
31 San Francisco -9.171
32 NY Jets -9.718
Understand that the statistics used are not predictive in nature, only an indication of how well the teams have played thus far.
The method confirms what we all think: The Pats have played far and away better than the rest of the league and that there's 5 very good teams right now and 5 very bad ones.
Thoughts?
Posted by Bill In DC @ 9:25 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007
Tim,
Football Outsiders is a great website. I really like the 'Playoff Odds' section. It runs 10,000 simulations of all the remaining games in a teams schedule and comes up with a % chance to make the playoffs, predicted number of wins.
Dallas, for instance, has a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and is predicted to win somewhere between 13 and 14 games.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds.php
Posted by Tim Schultz @ 9:36 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007
Thanks, Bill. Indeed, FO is terrific for the thinking fan. Last week, the FO founder had written that the Giants were merely good, the Cowboys were great (would be the best team in the NFL most seasons), and that the story line that they are "pretty even" was silly, and that Dallas should be a pretty big favorite. Completely correct.
Posted by Gary @ 9:40 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007
Albert,
Do you also include in the formula how poor (or not) the team's offense is. If a team usually scores 10 points on offense, the opposing team will typically (not always) be slightly more conservative knowing they don't have to do much to win. There is no doubt this is a factor with how teams script their game.
Posted by Ben @ 10:22 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007
What is your IQ score, Mr. Albert "Einstein" Breer? Your model is a crap.
Posted by ken @ 10:58 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007
Power rankings are crap. You sports media complain that college doesn't have playoff system and that the rankings are bogus. Yet you want to rank the pro teams. Each talking head has to have his/her own power ranking for the NFL. It's crap
Posted by ap @ 11:12 AM Thu, Nov 15, 2007
"Understand that the statistics used are not predictive in nature, only an indication of how well the teams have played thus far."
Michael, you have a promising career as a statistician (if you aren't one already).
Do you weight any of the categories more or less than others? (i.e does the Win/Loss differential count for more than starting field position?)