Here's what the numbers spit out going into the season's final week. The Cowboys' BPI figure rose in Week 16, yet they were passed by the Steelers. And that really isn't all that surprising.
What's emerged is three distinct tiers atop the NFL. Those are these, with the teams sorted in alphabetical order:
TIER 1: Patriots
TIER 2: Colts
TIER 3: Buccaneers, Chargers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Packers, Steelers, Seahawks
There's been much shuffling in the third tier, with the Steelers grabbing the upper hand by slapping around Rams in St. Louis. Now, the rankings.
1. Patriots – O: 58.1/D: 27.2/Last Week: 1 – 30.9
2. Colts – O: 48.7/D: 26.9/Last Week: 2 – 21.7
3. Steelers – O: 39.9/D: 26.5/Last Week: 5 – 13.4
4. Cowboys – O: 46.3/D: 33.3/Last Week: 3 – 13.1
5. Jaguars – O: 41.8/D: 29.5/Last Week: 9 – 12.3
6. Seahawks – O: 38.8/D: 26.9/Last Week: 6 – 11.9
7. Chargers – O: 38.4/D: 27.7/Last Week: 8 – 10.7
8. Buccaneers – O: 34.5/D: 25.2/Last Week: 7 – 9.3
9. Packers – O: 41.3/D: 32.1/Last Week: 4 – 9.3
10. Vikings – O: 36.2/D: 32.0/Last Week: 10 – 4.2
11. Eagles – O: 36.5/D: 33.3/Last Week: 12 – 3.1
12. Giants – O: 35.9/D: 33.3/Last Week: 13 – 2.6
13. Titans – O: 31.3/D: 29.5/Last Week: 14 – 1.8
14. Saints – O: 39.4/D: 38.0/Last Week: 11 – 1.4
15. Bengals – O: 36.8/D: 36.7/Last Week: 15 – 0.1
16. Redskins – O: 34.1/D: 34.6/Last Week: 16 – minus-0.5
17. Browns – O: 39.7/D: 41.3/Last Week: 17 – minus-1.7
18. Bears – O: 30.7/D: 34.0/Last Week: 21 – minus-3.3
19. Cardinals – O: 35.8/D: 39.1/Last Week: 19 – minus-3.3
20. Texans – O: 33.5/D: 39.0/Last Week: 18 – minus-5.5
21. Broncos – O: 33.0/D: 39.9/Last Week: 20 – minus-6.9
22. Panthers – O: 26.0/D: 34.8/Last Week: 23 – minus-8.8
23. Lions – O: 34.5/D: 43.5/Last Week: 26 – minus-8.9
24. Bills – O: 27.7/D: 36.8/Last Week: 25 – minus-9.1
25. Jets – O: 29.7/D: 38.9/Last Week: 27 – minus-9.1
26. Ravens – O: 26.7/D: 36.5/Last Week: 24 – minus-9.7
27. Raiders – O: 27.8/D: 38.0/Last Week: 22 – minus-10.2
28. Chiefs – O: 23.9/D: 34.3/Last Week: 28 – minus-10.4
29. Rams – O: 27.3/D: 40.4/Last Week: 29 – minus-13.1
30. Dolphins – O: 28.0/D: 42.1/Last Week: 30 – minus-14.1
31. Falcons – O: 24.8/D: 39.2/Last Week: 31 – minus-14.4
32. 49ers – O: 21.3/D: 38.1/Last Week: 32 – minus-16.8
... And here are the Cowboys' game-by-game BPI numbers. Remember, the premise is that 40-plus nearly assures victory.
COWBOYS OFFENSE GAME-BY-GAME
9/9 vs. Giants: 60 (W)
9/16 at Miami: 56 (W)
9/23 at Chicago: 52 (W)
9/30 vs. St. Louis: 60 (W)
10/8 at Buffalo: 31 (W)
10/14 vs. New England: 37 (L)
10/21 vs. Minnesota: 40 (W)
11/4 at Philadelphia: 59 (W)
11/11 at Giants: 47 (W)
11/18 vs. Redskins 44 (W)
11/22 vs. Jets 52 (W)
11/29 vs. Packers 57 (W)
12/9 at Lions 50 (W)
12/16 vs. Eagles 8 (L)
12/22 at Panthers 42 (W)
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Comments
Posted by gcruse @ 11:41 PM Fri, Dec 28, 2007
Flashing back to the Triplets of the nineties...
TIER 1: Cowboys
TIER 2: Forty-Niners
TIER 3: Everyone else
Posted by Timothy @ 12:02 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
Any index, poll or ranking that lists Dallas any lower than 2nd in the NFL is absolutely foolish.
There is no question about that.
As far as Albert Breer, it is stunning that Matt Mosely leaves the best the Dallas Morning News can do is this person.
This is a legitimate, serious question:
Albert, did you ever play organized football above the junior high level?
Posted by Mike @ 2:47 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
Is it me or does this power index just absolutely do nothing for anybody? I read it and I'm like "heh?"
They need to find more stuff for Breer to do there at the paper. But then again for 30k a year you can't expect much.
Posted by Jeff in PDX @ 2:53 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
One thing to consider is that Albert's power rankings are based entirely on numbers and have no human input.
I may be wrong but I don't think Albert thinks the Steelers are a better team then the Cowboys.
My power rankings are..
1. Pats
2. Colts
3. Cowboys
4. Jags
5. Chargers
6. Pats
7. Steelers
I don't think any other teams deserve mentioning
Posted by Jeff in Pdx @ 2:54 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
oops.....#6 should be the Pack.
Posted by Keenan @ 4:24 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
If the Cowboys are not as good as the slightly better than average Steelers you need to scrap your system. The Jags are the third best team in the AFC. WEAK!!
Posted by J @ 7:37 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
Albert,
Some of your analytical work is interesting. Yet, the index and other elements are overkill. Personally, I'd like to hear more about things such as:
Are the Cowboys working deals for Canty and MB3?
How bad are Newman's injuries?
Does any coach have feedback as to why Roy Williams has been so average this year?
Why can't Jerry put this Jason Garrett talk to bed like the skins did with Greg Williams?Let's hear more from Jerry on this subject.
Speaking of front office, what is status of Jeff Ireland (to keep him)?
Have you heard Jerry and/or Jeff comment on our aging WRs (and need for help) and why Bobby Carpenter has been such a bust?
Albert, that's what we want to know. It's a waste of time to have you indulge in this ridiculous poll.
Posted by letsgoto @ 8:09 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
Steelers #3, ha! Maybe its because the division the steelers are in (afc north) $ucks a$$!!! They get these ratings from this nonsense formula because they play bad teams!
Posted by Tom F @ 8:11 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
Power indexes mean nothing when the "tournament" starts. Whoever gets hot and stays hot and has minimum injuries will win.
Posted by BlueZone @ 9:23 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
OK then, now that's out of the way, along with all of next years draft picks, and more Parcells talk than most can stomach...
Who made the active list for the upcoming Redskins game? Even though the press has conceded the game for the Cowboys, they still have a game to play.
GO COWBOYS!!!!!!!!!!
I also think the Giants will show up tonight and submerge "The Best Team Never".
Posted by Pat @ 9:39 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
Timothy and Mike,
Learn the English language. Then attempt criticism without personal attack. Don't you need to question Albert's manhood as well?
Grow up.
Pat
Posted by Brandon B @ 9:50 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
Any type of power index must pass the smell test. If it doesn't, then the index must be tweaked or scrapped. To continually rank not so good teams above very good teams just looks stupid. Breer, this is just a waste of your time since the power index continually ranks the Steelers above teams such as the Cowboys, Packers, and Jaguars.
Posted by Switzer xXx @ 9:55 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
I dunno guys. Every game after that Packers game hasn't looked all that impressive from the 'boys. They struggled against the Lions, they lost to the Eagles who are out of the playoff hunt and can anyone say they were impressed with that Panther victory? I love pulling for the Cowboys more than anyone, but realistically this team is on a slide. I hope they get it turned around by the playoff game. Pretty much expect them to lay down this week against the 'skins with the old 'we were saving ourselves for the important game' reasons and once again stagger into the playoffs. While we don't like where Breers rankings have our team, it seems each week I become more of a bitter believer.
Posted by Drew @ 10:10 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
I agree. The Boys have been slipping for the past month or so and even though I want them to be the NFC champs and go to Arizona , I am having a hard time finding that a possible reality. Hopefully, Dallas will make it to the NFL championship game and will probably play the Packs and of course they have a score to settle.
Posted by Rolando @ 10:23 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
Even statistically, its very hard to classify the Colts as "on another tier above" the Cowboys. The Cowboys have has a prolific an offense as anyone has seen outside of Indy for several games, and our defensive personnel have slowly become the rock holding up our team.
Its a foregone conclusion -- Pats, Boys, Superbowl in Arizona. If anyone thinks we can get past the Packers, Seattle, Washington or New York, they're in for a surprise.
My only concerns is if we can compete against Brady's offense in a Superbowl shootout. THAT should be on everyone's minds, especially considering we're stuck with TWO gimpy WR's for the rest of the way.
Posted by Rolando @ 10:25 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
Wow, there are so many typographical errors in my previous post, its embarrassing. D:
But I stand by my points.
Posted by Mig @ 10:40 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
Funny thing is, after Week 13 (Packers game), the Cowboys (13-2) are 2-1 and the Steelers (10-5) are 1-2.
Among the 5 loses, Pitt has lost to Arizona, Denver and Jets (combined record 16-29).
Right now the debate for the AFC's 3rd best team is between SD and Jax, so go figure.
Posted by Boys fan in AZ @ 11:26 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
you guys dont have to agree with the power rankings and Al never said he thought they were the end all, be all. Gotta admit though, they sure get all of you fired up, and maybe that's what they are supposed to do. Regardless, it is "a" statistical measurement. He never said it was "the" statistical measurement. You are getting more info on the 'Boys now than ever before and if it doesnt fit where you all the vaunted experts want, you discard it as irrelevant.
This isnt the BCS so dont worry about it. They get to play it all out. Calm down, have some left over egg nog and turkey and take a nap. And try to be nice to Al. It is the Holiday season after all.
Posted by Mig @ 11:56 AM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
Obviously is just an index, but I guess the point is that it seems to be flawed. Football Outsiders has the teams ranked as follows (Total DVOA or season rankings): NE, IND, DAL, Jax, SD, TB, Pit & GB. As for Weighed DVOA (which puts more emphasis on the last games of the season), the rankins are: NE, Jax, SD, IND, Dal, TB, Sea, GB & Pit.
Pittsburg comes 7th in Total DVOA and 9th in Weighed DVOA (which confirms that the hottest teams are SD & Jax).
Posted by Rick Gosselin @ 12:50 PM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
This is so dumb you would've thought I wrote it.
Posted by Warden @ 12:55 PM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
I agree with a lot of the posters here. Pro football rankings are an absurd exercise in futility. Isn't that why they have the playoffs? Also, no offense to Albert Breer, but these number things make for boring reading. Breaking down the different sets, 2 TE formations, 3 WR sets, etc., I mean, what's the use. Write it up in some interesting prose, maybe, but otherwise it doesn't get much more boring.
Posted by douchekilla @ 2:04 PM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
Breer, this index is douche!! I'm assuming since you put your name on it as the Breer Power Index then you believe in it. So that makes you a douche!! After Bob Sturm complimented you so well on the radio for your hard work, you had to douche us with this??
Posted by d0uch3killa @ 2:09 PM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
Breer, this index is d0uch3!! I'm assuming since you put your name on it as the Breer Power Index then you believe in it. So that makes you a d0uch3!! After Bob Sturm complimented you so well on the radio for your hard work, you had to d0uch3 us with this??
Posted by thepainster @ 5:45 PM Sat, Dec 29, 2007
thepainster Power Index For Football Writers
After much tinkering on my Cray Super Computer, I have devised my own Power Index For Football Writers. Don't even think about asking what the formula is; it's top secret and much too complicated for any journalism major. The only thing I can tell you is a perfect score is 337.
So here are how the Dallas Morning News hounds stack up.
1. Albert Breer 217.47 Great xs and os guy but lost points due to his man love of Tom Brady.
2. Jean-Jacques Taylor 201.333 Can still bring it when writing about the Cowboys, but whats the deal with the French hyphenated name?
3. Todd Archer 189.12 Solid no frills beat writer but misses his daddy Parcells.
4. Tim MacMahon 123.67 Great on the computer but looking for a trade to the National Enquirer.
5. Calvin Watkins 101.11 Has the most athletic talent of all, but seems to be lost out there at times.
6. Frank Luska 99.99 The Brett Farve of the pressbox. He still uses a typewriter and thinks Craig Morton should start over Roger Staubach.
7. David Moore 86.43 Every now and then he writes some good stuff, but he is just to much of a nice guy.
8. Kevin Sherrington 76.89 ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
9. Tim Colishaw -10.1 Gets spanked by the chicks on Around The Horn way to often.
10. Rick Gosselin -99999.99i Most overrated football writer in the universe. East Coast suck up who still thinks Matt Lienert is the best quarterback in the NFL.
So there you have it, a completely unbiased, data driven ranking of all the DMN scribes. Enjoy!
Posted by Ric @ 6:26 PM Sun, Dec 30, 2007
With every game I lose more and more interest in rooting for the Cowgirls. They stopped playing over three games ago, and maybe they ought to stop picking up their paychecks. If they don't care, why should I?
Prediction: The hapless Cowboys get slaughtered in their first playoff game.
Signed, a Disenfranchised Cowboy fan
Posted by jandenharder @ 6:31 PM Sun, Dec 30, 2007
No one will remember if..
the Cowboys win their first and second play off games.
If we lose.. my, my, my will everyone be willing to pay the big bucks Jerry is counting on?
Posted by Patsy in Hutto @ 7:15 PM Sun, Dec 30, 2007
Every Dallas Cowboy player, coach Phillips, and all the other coaches should get an F minus for this game. Where is the desire to win every time they go out to play?? I know this game today did not mean as much to us as it did to Washington, but why can't we play for pride?? F- is exactly what they deserve. I have had season tickets for 12 years, and I have gone with the 'Boys win or lose and remained a loyal fan! Now, I may just forget it! If they don't care, why should I??
Posted by Dake @ 10:22 PM Sun, Dec 30, 2007
Cowboys will lose in the first game. No heart
Get a corner, safety and two mew receivers. Dump the white guy that can't catch